How do expert entrenpenurs succeed? Is it by predicting and anticipating the future, a future that no one else sees? Apparently not. Instead of wasting time and resources on "crystal ball gazing" they focus their efforts on what they can control, the present.

That was the gist from last week's lecture. Its a concept so  simple and so powerful, I think it just might change my life.

Apparently your average newbie entrenpenur (ie me and the other startup sprinters) feels compelled to do things the right way, the way we think a harvard MBA would do it. Start with a business plan, and a marketing plan, and figure out how much capital you need, get investment, then embark on an all or nothing campaign into the unknown. Unsurprisingly, that approach doesnt work for startups. Surprisingly, it does work for established businesses.

Which leads to the next surprising point - novice entrenpenurs behave the same as expert managers for established businesses, and this is exactly the opposite of the behaviour they need!

Expert entrenpenurs clearly see what they can control, and make the most of that. A great example was given by DropBox. In going from zero to two million users there was never an all-or-nothing commitment from any stakeholder. Just progressively larger inputs based on the success to date.

And looking back over the last couple of years I can clearly see a pattern in my own successes and failures which mirrors this point. Where i've acted to control a situation in the present I've always succeeded, but where ever I've acted based on a prediction of the future the result has been less then satisfactory.

So there's a lot of reflecting going on at the moment, stay tuned...